The Pinnacle: November 2025
November 2 0 2 5 • I S S U E 59
Monthly Markets Commentary – November 2025
Market recap and index snapshot
Global equities recouped lost ground in November, with U.S. markets staging a late-month rally as interest-rate expectations shifted and investors regained risk appetite. After mid-month weakness driven by uncertainty around AI valuations and monetary policy, markets rallied into month-end, supported by hopes for U.S. rate cuts and pick-up in broader buying.
| Index | Region | Month Return % | Year-to-Date % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | United States | ≈ +0.5% | ~ +16% |
| Nasdaq Composite | United States | ≈ –1.5% | ~ +21% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | United States | ≈ +0.4% | ~ +12.69% |
| STI | Singapore | ≈ +2.62% | ~ +24.23% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | Europe | ≈ +0.94% | ~ +16.38% |
| FTSE 100 | United Kingdom | ≈ +0.03% | ~ +18.93% |
| Nikkei 225 | Japan | ≈ -4.12% | ~ +25.97% |
| Hang Seng Index | Hong Kong | ≈ -0.19% | ~ +31.56% |
| Shanghai Composite | China / Asia ex-Japan | ≈ -1.67% | ~ +16.02% |
| MSCI World | Global Developed | ≈ -0.28% | ~ +7.05% |
Growth-oriented markets such as the Nasdaq lagged broader and more value-driven indices like the Dow and S&P 500. Asia ex-Japan underperformed developed peers amid persistent concerns about China’s recovery momentum, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained a standout on the back of strong corporate earnings and capital inflows.
What mattered this month
Several events shaped market sentiment in November 2025. We highlight the following themes:
Monetary policy and rate-cut expectations
Investors increasingly priced in a potential U.S. rate cut in December, fueling a late-month rally. Softer inflation and labor data encouraged speculation that central banks were nearing the end of their tightening cycles. However, mixed economic indicators earlier in the month added volatility. Market consensus now leans toward policy easing in early 2026, supporting risk assets.
Tech and AI valuations under pressure
After months of strong gains, major AI and technology names came under pressure in November. Investors rotated out of richly valued growth stocks as yields briefly spiked mid-month. Despite this pullback, AI adoption themes and earnings momentum kept long-term sentiment constructive. The Nasdaq’s negative monthly return reflected these valuation adjustments.
Rotation toward cyclical and value sectors
Capital flowed toward industrials, financials, and consumer cyclicals, sectors expected to benefit from moderating rates and stable growth. The S&P 500 and Dow outperformed as this rotation deepened. Broader participation across sectors signaled healthier market breadth, suggesting investors were preparing for a potential “soft landing” environment in 2026.
Global macro and geopolitical backdrop
Developed markets navigated uneven global data: slowing Eurozone growth, steady U.S. consumption, and fragile recovery in China. Geopolitical headlines from US-China trade tensions to Middle East supply disruptions, injected intermittent risk aversion. Nonetheless, corporate earnings resilience and easing inflation pressures lent support to equities into month-end.
The month ahead — December 2025:
Looking into December, markets are likely to focus on several scheduled events and data releases.
Central bank policy signals
The December FOMC and ECB meetings will be key in setting tone for year-end trading. Markets widely expect dovish messaging, but any pushback could trigger volatility. Investors will scrutinize forward guidance and inflation commentary for hints about the timing and pace of rate cuts.
Economic data and inflation trends
Upcoming US CPI, PPI, and payroll data will test whether disinflation remains on track. Signs of labor-market softening without a sharp growth slowdown would reinforce a “Goldilocks” narrative. Conversely, a re-acceleration could force central banks to delay easing, pressuring bonds and growth stocks.
Earnings updates and corporate guidance
Selective company updates, particularly in technology, consumer, and industrials — may drive sentiment. Firms providing strong 2026 outlooks could lead year-end rallies, while cautious guidance may weigh on valuations. Analysts expect modest Q4 earnings growth after mixed Q3 results.
Geopolitical and trade considerations
Markets remain alert to potential geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply chains or commodities. Any escalation could briefly dampen risk appetite but improving global liquidity conditions provide a cushion.
Closing line:
Overall, December is poised to test the durability of the late-2025 rally. Optimism on rate cuts and earnings could support equities but stretched valuations and macro uncertainty argue for selectivity. Investors may favor diversified exposure, balancing growth opportunities with defensives and global assets as 2026 approaches.
Sources
Associated Press (2025) — “US stocks rise for a fifth straight day to close out a volatile month.” AP News
Barron’s (2025) — “Review & Preview: November Comeback.” Barrons.com
Reuters (2025) — “European shares decline after November’s gains as industrial stocks weigh.” Reuters
Reuters (2025) — “Global demand for US stocks isn’t waning — it’s increasing.” Reuters
Willis Towers Watson (2025) — “Global Markets Overview: November 2025.” WTW Insights
MarketWatch (2025) — “These tech stocks join Alphabet among the sector’s rare gainers for November.” MarketWatch