The Pinnacle: July 2025
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July 2025 Market Review: Resilient Equities Amid Rising Trade Pressures
July Markets & Economic Overview
July 2025 unfolded as a month of dual themes: stability in policy and momentum in markets. US equity markets rallied on the back of strong mega-cap earnings and a steady Federal Reserve stance, while global developed indices reached new all‑time highs. The S&P 500 rose approximately 2.17%, while the Dow climbed 0.08%, fuelled by robust Q2 earnings and trade policy easing. In the UK over July, the larger cap FTSE 100 outperformed its smaller cap counterparts finishing the month up 4.2%, vs the FTSE 250 which finished up 1.6%, a reversal of the trend seen in June. Emerging Market equities rose in July 2025.
US Markets
Trump administration’s flurry of trade agreements and the rather grandly named ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ brought something markets had been craving: clarity. This "One Big Beautiful Bill" summarizes US President Donald Trump's fiscal policy plans, including a permanent reduction in income tax, further tax relief and new write-offs for companies. US equities continued their strong trajectory in July, buoyed by a trifecta of resilient earnings, progress on a major fiscal package (“One Big Beautiful Bill”), and investor enthusiasm for AI and tech stocks. Close to 80% of companies in the S&P 500 that have reported thus far have beaten consensus earnings and revenue growth expectations, which is better than the long-term average. Over July the importance of Big Tech to overall US stock market performance is evidenced by the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 3.7% and 2.2% respectively.
Eurozone
European equity markets rebounded in July, recovering some of the losses from June. The rally was driven by strong earnings in the financial sector and rising oil prices, which supported energy stocks. Inflation remained consistent at 2.0%. GDP data were more mixed. In July, the Stoxx600 was up 0.9% and MSCI Europe ex-UK underperformed (-0.2%), dragged down by warnings from continental technology heavyweights about the negative impact of US trade policy on 2026 growth targets.
UK Markets
UK equity markets posted strong gains with the UK FTSE All-Share surging by 4%. Top performing sectors included energy, healthcare, consumer staples and telecommunications. The healthcare sector was boosted by strong earnings updates from some large pharmaceutical companies. Weaker sectors were real estate and technology. The mid-cap FTSE 250 index underperformed the large cap FTSE 100. Anticipation of monetary easing proved accurate, with the Bank of England cutting its base rate from 4.25% to 4% on 7 August. This marked the fifth cut since mid-2024 and came amid forecasts that inflation could peak near 4% in September.
Asia – Emerging Markets
Asian equities generally rallied alongside global sentiment. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index gained roughly 2.6%, boosted by cyclical recovery and improved fundamentals across Northeast Asia. In July 2025, emerging market equities saw a bifurcated performance: Greater China, Taiwan, and Korea outperformed, buoyed by trade de-escalation, AI investment surges, and macro resilience, enabling the MSCI EM index to climb approximately 2.43%. China beat growth expectations, yet internal demand remained soft, prompting policymakers to pursue supply-side reforms. Japan’s market also rallied, supported by a U.S. trade deal, strong wage growth, and brighter business sentiment. Conversely, India, Mexico, and Brazil lagged, hampered by escalating U.S. tariffs tied to geopolitical and policy challenges.
Commodities
In July 2025, commodity markets delivered a nuanced picture and dropped to -0.5%. Oil prices surged nearly 9% on supply constraints and shifting interest rate expectations, while thermal coal also advanced strongly. Base metals diverged—copper spiked in U.S. markets on pre-tariff buying but saw smaller gains on the LME, and aluminium fell on weaker demand. Gold’s rally paused under the weight of a stronger dollar, while global food prices climbed to their highest in over two years.
The S&P GSCI index showed gains, led by energy and livestock sectors; precious metals offered modest support. However, overall commodity performance was muted, as copper faced pressure following tariff shifts.
Trade & Tariff Developments (July–10 September 2025)
On July 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping set of tariff changes ahead of an August 1 deadline. He imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, marking the collapse of trade talks with New Delhi. A 50% tariff was announced on copper pipes, wiring, and other semi-finished copper products prompting a sharp approximate 17% drop in U.S. copper prices.
Brazil faced a 50% tariff on most exports, although key sectors—including aircraft, energy, and orange juice—were exempt; these tariffs are slated to take effect on August 6.
South Korea secured a reduction in its tariff rate from 25% to 15%, while the U.S. also suspended its “de minimis” duty-free exemption for imports under $800, effective 29 August.
Conclusion: July 2025 offered broadly buoyant markets—with U.S. indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and FTSE 100 reaching notable gains—and global equities hitting new highs. Commodities remained mixed, while Asia exJapan recorded respectable growth. Still, escalating trade tensions, particularly escalating tariffs on copper and Indian exports, raise legitimate concerns around inflation, supply chains, and emerging-market vulnerabilities.
Looking ahead, equities continue to reflect resilience—but policymakers and businesses must navigate a rapidly evolving trade environment. For investors, a diversified, region-aware strategy remains prudent as global rolling tariffs and negotiations unfold.
Staying the Course: Behavioural Biases and Long-Term Investing in 2025
Introduction
In a dynamic financial environment marked by tight monetary policy, shifting trade patterns, and evolving macroeconomic trends, investors face unique psychological and strategic challenges. Armed with insights on behavioural biases and time-honoured investing wisdom, investors can better navigate uncertainty and align their decisions with TallRock Capital’s values of clarity, discipline, and long-term resilience.
Behavioural Biases in Uncertain Markets
In 2025, markets have been shaped by shifting trade policies, evolving interest rate expectations, and pockets of volatility across asset classes. In such conditions, the greatest challenge for many investors is not the market itself, but how they respond to it.
Uncertain environments tend to magnify well-known behavioural biases. Recency bias can lead investors to place too much weight on the latest market move, assuming recent trends will continue indefinitely. Confirmation bias can push them toward information that supports existing views while ignoring evidence to the contrary. And loss aversion, the tendency to fear losses more than valuing equivalent gains can result in hesitation, missed opportunities, or premature exits from the market. These biases are natural human responses to uncertainty, but they can undermine a well-structured investment strategy.
In contrast, staying invested even through steep downturns yields superior long-term results. The founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors notes that investors who remain committed during market turmoil tend to capture the full rebound, while those who flee miss critical recovery days. This reflects Warren Buffett’s enduring advice: avoid panic selling, invest when others are fearful, and stay focused on fundamentals rather than headlines.
By recognising these behavioural patterns and embedding safeguards against them, investors can better navigate periods of uncertainty and stay positioned for recovery and growth when markets turn.
Time in the Market vs Timing the Market
In periods of uncertainty, it can be tempting to wait for the “perfect” moment to invest. Yet history consistently shows that the power of compounding rewards those who are invested for longer, rather than those who attempt to predict short-term market moves.
Perfect timing requires not only buying at market lows but also selling at peaks — a feat that even the most experienced professionals rarely achieve consistently. Markets often turn upwards before economic headlines improve, meaning investors who remain on the sidelines risk missing the strongest periods of recovery.
One approach that aligns with this principle is disciplined, phased investing. Spreading investments over regular intervals reduces the influence of short-term volatility and keeps portfolios moving toward long-term objectives. This method can smooth the emotional highs and lows of market participation, reducing the urge to make reactive decisions.
Over decades, the difference between being fully invested and missing just a handful of the market’s best-performing days can be significant. Those “best days” often cluster around periods of heightened volatility, making them easy to miss if an investor is waiting for clarity. By remaining invested through different cycles, portfolios are positioned to capture the market’s natural upward bias over time.
Conclusion
In 2025’s complex market landscape, success rests on both psychological resilience and strategic consistency. Recognizing behavioural biases, particularly disposition bias, and implementing systems to counteract them safeguards clarity in volatile moments. Simultaneously, prioritizing time in the market via disciplined investment and dollarcost averaging generates durable results, far outperforming speculative timing strategies.
Sources
S&P 500, Dow performance etc. — S&P Global(S&P Global)
Developed market equities + earnings — J.P. Morgan(J.P. Morgan)
Nasdaq, FTSE 100, FTSE 250, European indices — Investec(Investec)
Equity momentum, AI, rally details — OANDA; Raymond James(OANDA, Raymond James)
Asia exJapan performance — J.P. Morgan(J.P. Morgan)
Strongest performers (China, UK) — WH Ireland(whirelandplc.com)
Commodities performance — Utmost review, Schroders(Utmost)
Copper tariff and market reaction — Reuters(Reuters)
Reciprocal tariffs order & implementation — Government executive order; Global Trade Law Blog(The White House)
India tariff escalation and impacts — Hindustan Times live updates; AP News; Times of India; Economic Times(ndtv.com)
Global tariff expansion — MoneyWeek(MoneyWeek)
Japan deal conditionality — Reuters(ourmidland.com)
Inflation/CPI outlook — FT.com(Financial Times)
Disposition Bias & Behavioural Biases — BlackRock’s insights on psychological traps in uncertain markets(AQR Capital Management, medirect.com.mt)
Time in the Market vs Timing the Market — Schwab (July 18, 2025): on the value of early investment and DCA over timing(Schwab Brokerage)
DollarCost Averaging vs Perfect Timing — Investopedia (within past two months): DCA vs theoretical perfect timing returns(Investopedia)
Financial Times – In shaky times, investors should hold their nerve
Kiplinger – Popular investing strategies you should really rethink